This spring, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) facilitated the culling of 94 brown bears, five black bears, and five wolves in southwest Alaska. The predator removals were part of an effort to revive the Mulchatna caribou herd, which once numbered nearly 300,000 animals but is now teetering on the edge of 12,000.
“It could be one of the largest government-backed killings of brown bears in the nation’s history,” Rick Steiner, a retired University of Alaska professor, told Alaska News Source. The last major culling was that of grizzlies in the Mountain West in the late 1800s, which nearly led to the extirpation of the species.
The bear removals were localized to the herd’s major calving grounds near the northeast edge of Wood-Tikchik State Park, north of Dillingham. Based on past research, about 20% of newborn calf mortality is chalked up to bear predation, but ADFG admits that they don’t have a good estimate on the number of bears in the area.
“Though we lack estimates of black or brown bear densities, [they are] frequently observed on the calving grounds,” state biologists write in a regulatory report published this year. “Thus, reducing the number of bears on and immediately surrounding the calving grounds immediately prior to calving may have a substantial impact on neonate survival.”
The report also dives into details of the wolf cullings, which have been taking place in the area since 2011. The wolf removals initially occurred over a 2,000-square-mile area surrounding the calving grounds, but in 2022 were expanded to over 15,000 square miles to reduce predation on all yearling caribou, rather than just infants. In 2017, the program harvested an all-time high of 30 canines from the region.
To some, however, the predator control measures seem like a band-aid on a bigger problem, and the state doesn’t appear to deny it.
“This intensive management action—it’s a tool that the department can use immediately to try to reverse that declining trend,” Tim Peltier, an ADFG regional director, told Alaska Public Radio. In a project report, the biologists also note that “both bear and wolf populations have been shown to repopulate within 3-5 years post reduction efforts.” In essence, if the state wants to keep predator numbers low, annual control efforts will be necessary—which the Alaska Board of Game has already authorized through 2028.
But ultimately, predation is not the main reason the Mulchatna herd has declined so precipitously. Rather, biologists point to disease and lower juvenile recruitment as the primary culprits. Brucellosis, a bacterial-born illness, has recently been on the rise in the Mulchatna herd. The disease can cause pregnant cows to abort their fetuses, resulting in greater infertility in the population.
A lack of available food is equally as pressing. Caribou rely heavily on lichens as winter forage, which are notoriously slow growing. In the region the Mulchatna herd inhabits, a compilation of local knowledge reveals that lichens are not nearly as prevalent as they once were, in part due to the herd potentially overgrazing and trampling the plants when it numbered in the hundreds of thousands.
In fact, the slow decline could actually be part of the natural population arch of caribou herds, which are known to experience huge fluctuations over the course of decades (40-70 years or more). A caribou population booms, munching down the available lichens; and then crashes, once it has consumed all the food. The population then remains low for decades as lichens regrow, after which the herd size again begins to rise. In the Mulchatna herd specifically, biologists are seeing poor body condition in females, indicative of decreased forage availability.
On top of the impacts of caribou, lichens in southwest Alaska are also facing increased threats from summer wildfires and alder-brush encroachment on the tundra and alpine areas where they grow. In all, it’s a perfect storm of a population downturn combined with disease.
Opponents of the state’s plan point out that ADFG is failing to address these true causes of the decline. Nicole Schmitt, executive director for the Alaska Wildlife Alliance argues that predator culling is not a sustainable approach: “We’re scapegoating bears and wolves because it's an easy way to show that you’re doing something. Is it sustainable management when you have to manage a herd by literally flying three aircraft and helicopters above the calving grounds and shooting things down? That’s not management.”
State officials might point to the fact that they’ve closed hunting on the caribou herd since 2021. There are dozens of native Alaskan villages that have historically conducted subsistence hunts on the herd, as well as hundreds of recreational hunting licenses issued annually by the state. Though illegal harvest is still occurring, all of those sanctioned hunts have been paused.
Going forward, biologists plan to monitor the effectiveness of predator removal in increasing calf survival. In the meantime, the efforts have opened up some new public opportunities: “The Department will continue to issue permits to public pilot/gunner teams to take wolves on the same-day-airborne program. These permits allow for land-and-shoot taking of wolves and/or aerial shooting by a backseat gunner.”
